This study presents modeling and cartographic results of agroclimatic indicator changes in southern Tyumen Oblast under SSP2-4.5 (moderate) and SSP3-7.0 (extreme) scenarios for 2050. The analysis covers four parameters: mean annual temperature, mean temperature of the warmest quarter, annual precipitation, precipitation in the warmest quarter.
The work methodology is based on a comparison of two time slices: retrospective data (average bioclimatic values for 1970-2000) and forecast values according to selected climate scenarios. Mapping was done in ArcGIS Pro 3.0 using OpenStreetMap (WGS 1984 Web Mercator coordinate system). The results are presented as series of 1 : 9 000 000) scale maps created by Raster Layer Visualization (GRID) of bioclimatic indicators.
Key findings: SSP2-4.5 shows significant warming (+3,53 °C maximum in southeastern districts), with 75–85 % attributable to summer; SSP3-7.0 intensifies trends: +7–8 % in annual temperatures and +9–10 % in extreme summer heat; Annual precipitation increases under SSP2-4.5 (17,4–40,5 mm), yet southeastern regions face summer deficits; SSP3-7.0 reduces annual precipitation growth by 10–12 % and summer precipitation by 40–50 %, accelerating aridification.
The cartographic outputs provide a foundation for climate risk assessment and regional agricultural adaptation programs.

Valentina A. Dobryakova
Candidate of Geographical Sciences
Professor Department of Cartography and Geographic Information Systems
Tyumen State University
6, Volodarskiy Str., Tyumen, 625003, Russia
e-mail: v.a.dobryakova@utmn.ru
ORCID ID: 0000-0002-8530-7129
ResearcherID: Q-2061-2018
SPIN-code: 1260-8793
AuthorID: 250368

Vladilena A. Zhivotova
Вachelor
Tyumen State University
6, Volodarskiy Str., Tyumen, 625003, Russia
e-mail: vladilenazhivotova@mail.ru
ORCID ID: 0009-0000-8785-1083

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