A methodology for assessing and predicting the condition of historical park plantations based on the integration of field inventory data and spatial analysis is presented. Using the example of the Yekaterinhof Park (Saint Petersburg), spatial data were collected on 132 old-growth trees, and their age was verified using dendrometric models. Using GIS technologies, the spatial structure was analyzed, and an integrated preservation index (IPI) was calculated, combining both attribute and spatial characteristics. The results revealed a high preservation of the historical core (IPS = 85,1 %) with a critical state of the overall landscape (IPS = 55,2 %). Based on the spatial distribution of key parameters, a forecast model of dynamics until 2035 has been developed for three scenarios. The methodology demonstrates the effectiveness of geoinformation approaches for monitoring landscape heritage sites.

Anastasia A. Kostereva
Postgraduate student
S.M. Kirov St. Petersburg State Forestry University
5, Institutskiy lane, St. Petersburg, 194021, Russia
е-mail: kosterevanasta@gmail.com
SPIN-code: 9126-5277

Marsel R. Vagizov
Doctor of Technical Sciences
Associate Professor, Vice-Rector for Information Technology and Digital Transformation
Russian State Hydrometeorological University
79, Voronezhskaya Str., St. Petersburg, 192007, Russia
e-mail: bars-tatarin@yandex.ru
ORCID: 0000-0003-4848-1619
SCOPUS ID: 57194441570
ResearcherID: I-7074-2016
SPIN-code: 4811-8943
AuthorID: 861495

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