The article examines the issues of assessing the intensity of tremors from the impact of industrial explosions and their danger to the population using the example of the development of the Kiembaevsky mine in the Orenburg region. Research into these issues is directly aimed at ensuring the safety of the population, which is a priority task for the President and the Government of the Russian Federation.
The purpose of the work. Monitor the development of the seismic situation from 2006 to 2023 in the territory of the Kiembaevsky mine in the Orenburg region, assess the probability of critical tremors from industrial explosions, determine, as a first approximation, the attenuation coefficient of the intensity of seismic events for this area, and also assess the degree of influence of the mass of explosive on the intensity of tremors.
Research methods. During the research, the Shebalin-Blake model was used to calculate the intensity of seismic events. The Laplace function was used to estimate the probability of events and the least squares method was used to construct a prediction function for the attenuation of the oscillation intensity. One of the methods of factor analysis, the principal component method, was used to assess the dependence of the intensity of a seismic event on the mass of an explosive.
The results of the work. The systematization and analysis of seismic events that occurred around the Orenburg Minerals JSC quarry from 2006 to 2023 was carried out, according to power, time, depth and geographical characteristics.
The intensity of vibrations of the upper part of the Earth’s crust in the territory of adjacent settlements around the quarry has been calculated. Cases of occurrence of events with an intensity of six points, which did not exist before, have been identified, which is a critical value for this region. The assessment of the level of negative impact of seismic processes on industrial and civil construction facilities is given. It was noted that it is necessary to organize local monitoring at enterprises conducting mass explosions to ensure the safety of nearby settlements.
Based on the averaged statistical data, the probability of occurrence of critical intensity values of seismic events from the effects of industrial explosions is determined. A function has been obtained that describes, to a first approximation, the degree of attenuation of seismic events for the mine under development.
When analyzing the data on the intensity of seismic events from the mass of the explosive, it was found that the intensity of seismic events and the mass of the explosive are in different components. This indicates a weak dependence of these parameters, and confirms the complexity and randomness of the processes of the reaction of the Earth’s crust to the effects of explosions.

Vladimir S. Belov
Researcher
Department of Geoecology
Orenburg Federal Research Center Ural Branch
of the Russian Academy of Sciences
29, Naberezhnay Str., Orenburg, 460014, Russia
e-mail: belov-vs@mail.ru
ORCID: 0000-0002-1215-3595
SPIN-code: 7998-8980
AuthorID: 1102344

Maxim Yu. Nesterenko
Doctor of Geological and Mineralogical Sciences,
Associete Professor
Head of Department of Geoecology
Orenburg Federal Research Center Ural Branch
of the Russian Academy of Sciences
29, Naberezhnay Str., Orenburg, 460014, Russia
e-mail: n_mu@mail.ru
ORCID: 0000-0003-1465-0752
Scopus ID: 57211203145
Researcher ID: С-4184-2018
SPIN-code: 1644-2763
AuthorID: 632852

Oksana A. Kapustina
Candidate of Technical Siences, Associete Professor
Senior Researcher of Department of Geoecology
Orenburg Federal Research Center Ural Branch
of the Russian Academy of Sciences
29, Naberezhnay Str., Orenburg, 460014, Russia
e-mail: onica1@yandex.ru
ORCID: 0000-0001-8981-6599
Scopus ID: 58186164600
Researcher ID: А-2888-2012
SPIN-code: 4209-7604
AuthorID: 531209

Vladimir N. Kostin
Doctor of Technical Siences, Associete Professor
Leading Researcher of Department of Geoecology
Orenburg Federal Research Center Ural Branch
of the Russian Academy of Sciences
29, Naberezhnay Str., Orenburg, 460014, Russia
e-mail: vladimirkostin5@mail.ru
Scopus ID: 5721932893
SPIN-code: 1742-6440
AuthorID: 673169

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